Price Forecast — AI Time Series & Forward Arbitrage

Active Sourcing Hub · Day 29 Sep 2026

Kolkata (WB) Wholesale Mandi

Spot Benchmark: ₹645.0/100

7-Day Target Price (P50 Expected)

₹597.8/100 (-7.3%)

Signal: BEARISH CORRECTION · Action: LIQUIDATE INVENTORY / TIGHT STOPS

Model Historical Validation

98.5% Directional Accuracy

StatsForecast-AutoETS-AutoTheta-Panchang-Ensemble · WAPE: 1.47%

Kolkata (WB) — Rolling Trading Window

120 Obs (07-01 → 10-28)ⓘ

Realized Spot

TimesFM (P50)

P10–P90 Range

Focused Date

07-01

07-02

07-03

07-04

07-05

07-06

07-07

07-08

07-09

07-10

07-11

07-12

07-13

07-14

07-15

07-16

07-17

07-18

07-19

07-20

07-21

07-22

07-23

07-24

07-25

07-26

07-27

07-28

07-29

07-30

07-31

08-01

08-02

08-03

08-04

08-05

08-06

08-07

08-08

08-09

08-10

08-11

08-12

08-13

08-14

08-15

08-16

08-17

08-18

08-19

08-20

08-21

08-22

08-23

08-24

08-25

08-26

08-27

08-28

08-29

08-30

08-31

09-01

09-02

09-03

09-04

09-05

09-06

09-07

09-08

09-09

09-10

09-11

09-12

09-13

09-14

09-15

09-16

09-17

09-18

09-19

09-20

09-21

09-22

09-23

09-24

09-25

09-26

09-27

09-28

₹576

09-29

09-30

10-01

10-02

10-03

10-04

10-05

10-06

10-07

10-08

10-09

10-10

10-11

10-12

10-13

10-14

10-15

10-16

10-17

10-18

10-19

10-20

10-21

10-22

10-23

10-24

10-25

10-26

10-27

10-28

Date2026-09-29

Forecast (P50)₹576.41/100

Actual Spot Price₹645.00/100

Variance (Error)-68.6 (10.6%)

Risk Envelope (P10 → P90)₹566.75 → ₹586.23

Daily Price Breakdown & Variance Ledger (07-01 → 10-28)

120 Observations Evaluated

Date	Forecast (P50)	Actual Realized Rate	Variance	Downside Floor (P10)	Upside Ceiling (P90)	Accuracy / Risk Band
2026-07-01	—	₹695.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-02	—	₹695.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-03	—	₹695.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-04	—	₹705.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-05	—	₹710.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-06	—	₹710.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-07	—	₹710.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-08	—	₹710.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-09	—	₹720.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-10	—	₹730.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-11	—	₹740.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-12	—	₹745.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-13	—	₹750.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-14	—	₹760.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-15	—	₹765.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-16	—	₹770.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-17	—	₹770.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-18	—	₹770.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-19	—	₹770.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-20	—	₹770.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-21	—	₹740.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-22	—	₹710.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-23	—	₹710.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-24	—	₹680.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-25	—	₹680.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-26	—	₹680.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-27	—	₹660.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-28	—	₹640.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-29	—	₹640.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-30	—	₹610.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-07-31	—	₹610.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-01	—	₹610.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-02	—	₹610.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-03	—	₹610.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-04	—	₹590.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-05	—	₹590.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-06	—	₹600.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-07	—	₹600.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-08	—	₹600.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-09	—	₹600.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-10	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-11	—	₹585.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-12	—	₹575.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-13	—	₹575.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-14	—	₹575.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-15	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-16	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-17	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-18	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-19	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-20	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-21	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-22	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-23	—	₹580.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-24	—	₹590.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-25	—	₹600.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-26	—	₹605.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-27	—	₹610.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-28	—	₹620.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-29	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-30	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-08-31	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-01	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-02	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-03	—	₹620.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-04	—	₹620.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-05	—	₹620.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-06	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-07	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-08	—	₹640.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-09	—	₹650.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-10	—	₹655.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-11	—	₹660.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-12	—	₹660.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-13	—	₹660.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-14	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-15	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-16	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-17	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-18	—	₹645.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-19	—	₹650.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-20	—	₹650.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-21	—	₹650.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-22	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-23	—	₹630.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-24	—	₹615.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-25	—	₹615.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-26	—	₹625.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-27	—	₹635.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-28	—	₹640.00	—	—	—	Spot Realized
2026-09-29 ◀	₹576.41	₹645.00	-68.6 (10.6%)	₹566.75	₹586.23	89.4% Match
2026-09-30	₹595.24	—	-44.8 (0%)	₹581.32	₹609.49	±₹14 Band
2026-10-01	₹579.18	—	-60.8 (0%)	₹561.01	₹597.29	±₹18 Band
2026-10-02	₹598.63	—	-41.4 (0%)	₹575.49	₹620.99	±₹23 Band
2026-10-03	₹583.89	—	-56.1 (0%)	₹557.98	₹608.38	±₹25 Band
2026-10-04	₹605.59	—	-34.4 (0%)	₹576.93	₹633.71	±₹28 Band
2026-10-05	₹597.77	—	-42.2 (0%)	₹566.10	₹629.91	±₹32 Band
2026-10-06	₹580.55	—	-59.5 (0%)	₹548.63	₹614.53	±₹33 Band
2026-10-07	₹598.83	—	-41.2 (0%)	₹562.55	₹634.71	±₹36 Band
2026-10-08	₹582.13	—	-57.9 (0%)	₹542.98	₹619.36	±₹38 Band
2026-10-09	₹601.22	—	-38.8 (0%)	₹557.36	₹641.71	±₹42 Band
2026-10-10	₹586.06	—	-53.9 (0%)	₹542.26	₹627.39	±₹43 Band
2026-10-11	₹607.54	—	-32.5 (0%)	₹558.46	₹652.67	±₹47 Band
2026-10-12	₹599.46	—	-40.5 (0%)	₹551.63	₹645.92	±₹47 Band
2026-10-13	₹582.00	—	-58 (0%)	₹532.93	₹627.59	±₹47 Band
2026-10-14	₹600.18	—	-39.8 (0%)	₹546.75	₹649.19	±₹51 Band
2026-10-15	₹583.32	—	-56.7 (0%)	₹531.37	₹632.63	±₹51 Band
2026-10-16	₹656.07	—	+16.1 (0%)	₹595.43	₹712.01	±₹58 Band
2026-10-17	₹636.77	—	-3.2 (0%)	₹576.99	₹694.94	±₹59 Band
2026-10-18	₹663.47	—	+23.5 (0%)	₹599.89	₹727.30	±₹64 Band
2026-10-19	₹653.26	—	+13.3 (0%)	₹589.33	₹717.93	±₹64 Band
2026-10-20	₹631.51	—	-8.5 (0%)	₹568.51	₹695.92	±₹64 Band
2026-10-21	₹654.29	—	+14.3 (0%)	₹585.39	₹724.73	±₹70 Band
2026-10-22	₹633.21	—	-6.8 (0%)	₹566.46	₹705.07	±₹69 Band
2026-10-23	₹656.93	—	+16.9 (0%)	₹584.46	₹731.18	±₹73 Band
2026-10-24	₹637.59	—	-2.4 (0%)	₹567.42	₹708.98	±₹71 Band
2026-10-25	₹664.30	—	+24.3 (0%)	₹588.92	₹741.18	±₹76 Band
2026-10-26	₹654.07	—	+14.1 (0%)	₹578.38	₹733.60	±₹78 Band
2026-10-27	₹632.28	—	-7.7 (0%)	₹557.73	₹708.86	±₹76 Band
2026-10-28	₹655.08	—	+15.1 (0%)	₹576.77	₹738.12	±₹81 Band

Active Forward Arbitrage Corridors (Sourced from / to Kolkata (WB))

Active Fleet: 20 Tonne Rigid (6-Wheel) · 1,000 Boxes (360k Eggs) @ ₹41/km

Source Mandi	Destination	Current Spread	7D Pred Spread	Highway Distance	Truckload Net Cash	Action
Hospet	Kolkata (WB)	₹120.00/100	₹117.29/100	1,804 km	₹3,07,600	Inspect Route
Hyderabad	Kolkata (WB)	₹110.00/100	₹103.55/100	1,436 km	₹2,72,684	Inspect Route
Namakkal	Kolkata (WB)	₹100.00/100	₹102.32/100	1,992 km	₹2,44,920	Inspect Route
Jabalpur	Kolkata (WB)	₹105.00/100	₹101.05/100	1,118 km	₹2,76,452	Inspect Route
Raipur	Kolkata (WB)	₹100.00/100	₹96.82/100	835 km	₹2,72,557	Inspect Route
Bhopal	Kolkata (WB)	₹100.00/100	₹94.20/100	1,425 km	₹2,38,935	Inspect Route
Erode	Kolkata (WB)	₹80.00/100	₹82.45/100	500 km	₹2,33,480	Inspect Route
Indore	Kolkata (WB)	₹85.00/100	₹79.95/100	1,617 km	₹1,78,953	Inspect Route